Key Macro Themes
In this first-quarter update to our global macroeconomic outlook, developed in partnership with Oxford Economics, 2023 dawns in the shadow of slowing global growth and rising inflation over the course of the last year. We contend that the economic outlook for this year is being shaped by three main forces:
- U.S. excess demand and the associated tightening of monetary policy
- The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Europe and its energy prices
- The susceptibility of China’s policy-driven growth model
We suspect that these forces could lead to a period of low growth and high uncertainty marked by long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. and globally, as well as a subdued economic recovery in subsequent years. Click the “Download the Update” button to read the full quarterly report.
Market Forecasts & Allocations
In our previous two collaborations with Oxford Economics, Geographic Diversification in Private Equity Markets and last year’s Global Macroeconomic Outlook, we described Ben’s portfolio management framework, our risk-adjusted forecasting methodology and private equity allocation views. In this quarterly letter we offer a more granular view of our medium-term forecasts (five-year horizon) for both public and private key market segments, as well as risk-adjusted allocation tilts derived from our portfolio risk management framework.
We also provide some perspective into current downside market risks by contrasting our baseline views to those obtained within the context of persistent higher inflation scenario where the Fed and other major central banks are forced to keep rates higher for longer, as described in the previous section.
Important Disclosures
The information in this material is not intended to replace any information or consultation provided by a financial advisor or other professional nor shall be perceived to constitute financial, legal, accounting or tax advice.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Ben or Oxford Economics. The information in this material is not intended to replace any information or consultation provided by a financial advisor or other professional nor shall be perceived to constitute financial, legal, accounting or tax advice.
These materials contain certain estimates, projections and forward-looking statements that contain substantial risks and uncertainties. The estimates, projections and forward-looking statements contained herein may or may not be realized, accurate or complete, and differences between estimated results and those realized may be material. Such estimates, projections and forward-looking statements are illustrative only and reflect various assumptions of Ben’s management concerning the future performance of Ben and its affiliates, and are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond Ben’s control.
Except as otherwise noted, the materials speak as of 2023. Neither Ben nor any of its affiliates or representatives undertakes any obligation to update or revise any of the information contained herein or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent.
